Pakistan’s Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum takes over as the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency’s new leader today amidst a potential resurgence of militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—an umbrella organization of various militant groups along the Afghan-Pakistan border—and the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K), have recently increased attacks on Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban while cooperating on an operational level.
Taliban and Pakistani relations have been strained since the former is cautious about provoking TTP due to part of the group’s hesitancy in joining ISIS while the latter remains threatened by TTP. Despite this, the Taliban continues to mediate between TTP and Pakistan.
In the short-term, expect rising instability along the Pakistan-Afghan border is since negotiations with the TTP have not worked in the past, and the Taliban struggles with increased attacks from IS-K.
Given the Pakistan-TTP ceasefire agreement signed last week and the TLP becoming a political party, expect the ISI to encounter an increase in domestic militancy in Pakistan in the medium-term. If the government cedes to the TTP’s demands, specifically to allow Sharia law in tribal regions, then it is likely other similar groups will engage in violence against the state.
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Alan is an analyst with the Current Developments team, focusing on security and politics, particularly within the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Africa. He contributes regularly to the Daily Brief.