Today, five Indian states will release election results. Rajasthan will be most important, showing a landslide victory for the opposition Indian National Congress and a shift away from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
In the 200-seat legislative assembly, BJP is expected to lose its 160-seat majority; polls project a new majority of at least 112 seats for the INC and voter turnout at close to 75%. While the INC has conceded that there is anti-incumbency sentiment at work, there is widespread resentment over Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s response to drought, flooding and agricultural distress. The INC government will likely clash with New Delhi over the boost in drought assistance and employment that it wants to bring back to the state.
The biggest issue for the INC is which issues it will seek to address, the first being to select a chief minister when the party takes power. The INC is continuing its tradition of not naming a candidate until it takes power. BJP will remain a considerable opposition force as it is expected to retain at least 70 seats, and INC is likely to seek agreement with them on major issues due to strong support in Rajasthan for national PM Narendra Modi.
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Kai looks at security and political turbulence in the emerging market economies and also serves as a publisher with The Daily Brief.