The 45-day grace period for allowing Russian oil imports into the US ends today.
Besides crude oil, the ban also includes other petroleum and energy products such as fuel oil, partially refined oils, and motor gasoline, as well as natural gas and coal. In 2021, Russia accounted for 8% of American petroleum imports, including 3% of crude oil imports and 20% of other petroleum product imports such as intermediaries for kerosene and naphtha. In response to the ban, American refineries began to increase fuel oil imports from other suppliers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Mexico.
Expect to see short-term increases in US gasoline and diesel prices as domestic supplies are limited and economic activity increases over the summer. Other petroleum products such as naptha and kerosene will also see elevated prices until American refineries start receiving supplies from other sources such as the Middle East and Mexico. The shift away from Russian oil imports will likely drive increases in US domestic oil production in the coming decade, which will increase oil exports, blunt the impact of decarbonization initiatives, and slow America’s shift to green energy.
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Kyle is a Publisher and Analyst on the Analysis team. He specializes in foreign policy and human rights in Latin America and the Caribbean, with a particular focus on Mexico and Central America.