Poll results determining Taiwan’s next opposition presidential candidate will be announced today.
Hailed as a milestone in Taiwan’s political history, rival opposition parties Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP) have agreed to join forces and head a joint presidential ticket for Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election. Today’s election results will determine which candidate from the respective parties will lead their unity ticket. Since September, most public polls have shown TPP’s Ko Wen-je leading over KMT’s Hou Yu-ih. For example, one released on Tuesday has Ko leading with 21% of the popular vote over Hou’s 18%.
Regardless of the election outcome, both candidates still face an uphill battle given the popularity of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) William Lai. However, a KMT-TPP government victory could prove likely given Taiwan’s political history of the KMT and DPP flopping powers every 8 years. In the advent of a KMT-TPP victory, expect the new government to move away from Washington and to establish warmer ties with Beijing. The latter will likely gain resonance within the public given their disenchantment with the establishment evident through their China fatigue, where they have prioritized political stability and a better economy over preserving Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Jasmine is an analyst that writes for the Daily Brief.