Today, finance ministers of the G20 will convene in Buenos Aires for a three-day conference.
This summit comes as the US rallies its allies to replace Iranian oil imports by November, when US sanctions are scheduled to snap back after Donald Trump renounced the Iran nuclear deal. These sanctions will almost certainly be a central point of discussion over the next 72 hours, with US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin hinting that Washington would provide waivers to “specific situations” that would give more time to adjust to the shift away from Iran.
Waivers may be offered to countries such as India, where Iran is the third largest source of crude oil and which may need more time to readjust the distribution of import origin states towards, for example, Venezuela.
In the meantime, expect oil-rich states such as Saudi Arabia to augment spare oil production in order to provide for importers turning away from Iran. Given that 50 major companies have followed the US’ lead and pulled out of Iran, appeasing wary states with waivers will push Iran further away from discussions on its own future and strengthen the US’ oil allies.
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Bibi contributes to our analysis of European affairs for The Daily Brief. She also serves as a copy editor for the publication.